LEADS for Health Security and Resilience Consortium LEADS for Health Security
and Resilience Consortium

Regional Forecast

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Cases by Date of Report: The plot and corresponding numbers show predicted new cases per day. The green region of the graph shows the in-sample predictions that the model has in the past 170 days. This is used for validation purposes in terms of how good the model is in predicting past daily cases. The orange region shows in-sample estimates of new cases in the most recent 10 days which may be susceptible to data delays or adjustments. The purple region shows the forecasted new cases for the next 7 days, which shows the possible direction of new cases based on the analysis of the most recent 180 days of data. The plot also shows 20% (darkest), 50% (darker) and 90% (dark) credible intervals, which shows the chance that cases will have those range of values.